Sunday, 30 June 2019

Gold, Cryptos, Censorship, & Strategic Relocation

Jim Rawles, founder of, returns to Reluctant Preppers to bring us up to date on these hot topics: 

- Gold, Silver, and Platinum: Still Undervalued? 

- Cryptos: portable and undetectable? 

- Internet Censorship to be weaponized for 2020 elections, but there’s a NEW UNSTOPPABLE ALTERNATIVE...

- Strategic Relocation on the surface of the Real-Estate bubble: what’s a family to do? 

- Going mobile: several surprising options for survival get-out vehicles.

Friday, 28 June 2019

What to Expect From the Gold Price Ahead of G-20

With global growth worsening and the trade war tensions intensifying, a rise in gold prices could be coming by September, according to Bill Baruch, founder and president of Blue Line Futures. 

“Global growth has been deteriorating for a while, and now it’s the trade war just speeding the process up,” Baruch said. “If we see progress on the trade war, then the dollar could sell off, and gold lifts higher.” 

Baruch also said gold could see levels of $1,484 over the next two months, as the path of least resistance is both technically and fundamentally higher. After that, gold could see some seasonal resistance. 

“Looking at the Fed being more dovish than expected in the meeting last week, ultimately that helped lift gold higher, by putting a little bit of pressure on the dollar,” he said. 

“The dollar hasn’t really sold off, and one of the reasons why is because there’s a lot of safe-haven tailwinds in the dollar because of the trade war.” “This is a bullish breakout above the five-year trend,” Baruch noted. 

“It’s a matter of where we go from here in the sense of holding support, and a more immediate term move higher, or consolidation before moving higher.”

- Source, Kitco News

Wednesday, 26 June 2019

Despite Pullback, One Man Says Gold Price May Retest Record High Of $1,921

On the heels of King World News warning on Tuesday that the gold market may correct in order to consolidate recent gains, the price of gold is trading nearly $20 lower on Japan’s TOCOM. But here is a look at the big picture from one man that says gold may retest its record high of $1,921.

From CNBC: “Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1921 record high,” David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse, said in a note to clients on Monday.

Credit Suisse: Gold May Retest Record High Of $1,921

Expect “Long-Lasting Rally” In Gold

Sneddon said gold has established a multi-year base that could provide the platform for a “significant and long-lasting rally” for the precious metal.

“Significant Catalyst For Gold To Extend Its Gains”

“We have finally seen more conclusive signs of the USD starting to materially weaken,” said Sneddon. “With the DXY removing pivotal support from its 200-day average to complete an important bearish ‘wedge’ reversal, which should provide a fresh and significant catalyst for Gold to extend its gains.”

- Source, King World News, Read More Here

Harvey Organ: $20 Silver Blows Up the Banks Before the End of 2019

Hey there stackers and other smart investors!

Here’s a very important interview about the current state of the gold & silver markets.

And what is the state of the markets?

Oh, they’re only blowing up! During this interview, we discuss:

– Comments on recent gold & silver price moves.
– Discussion on current state of gold & silver markets.
– $20 silver blows-up the banking system.
– Gold quickly to $2,000, then reset to $10,000 per ounce.
– COMEX & LBMA breaking…game’s over.

- Source, Silver Doctors

Gold to Silver Ratio is Indicating a Potential Recession

With the gold-to-silver ratio as high as it is (at the time of recording it is over 90 times), Rhona O’Connell, from INTL FCStone Ltd, says watch out.

- Source, IG UK

Tuesday, 25 June 2019

Global Money Laundering Watchdog Launches Crackdown on Cryptocurrencies...

Cryptocurrency firms will be subjected to rules to prevent the abuse of digital coins such as bitcoin for money laundering, a global watchdog said on Friday, the first worldwide regulatory attempt to constrain the rapidly growing sector.

Financial Action Task Force (FATF), set up 30 years ago to tackle money laundering, told countries to tighten oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges to stop digital coins being used to launder cash.

The move by FATF, which groups countries from the United States to China and bodies such as the European Commission, reflects growing concern among international law enforcement agencies that cryptocurrencies are being used to launder the proceeds of crime.

Countries will be compelled to register and supervise cryptocurrency-related firms such as exchanges and custodians, which will have to carry out detailed checks on customers and report suspicious transactions, FATF said in a statement.

“This will enable the emerging FinTech sector to stay one-step ahead of rogue regimes and sympathizers of illicit causes searching for avenues to raise and transfer funds without detection,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told a FATF meeting in Florida, according to remarks posted on the U.S Treasury website.

Simon Riondet, head of financial intelligence at Europol, the European police agency that coordinates cross-border investigations, told Reuters he saw a growing use of cryptocurrencies in laundering criminal money.

“This is a risk we all face worldwide,” FATF President Marshall Billingslea told Reuters. “Nations need to move forward rapidly. This is an urgent issue.”

Europol broke up a Spanish drugs cartel this year that laundered cash using two crypto ATMs, machines that issue cryptocurrencies for cash.

Riondet said cryptocurrencies were used to transfer money across borders, as well as to break down large criminal money transfers into smaller amounts that are harder to detect.

“We also have some investigation on the dark web in which the payments are made in cryptocurrencies, sometimes in bitcoin, and they are switching it to more anonymized cryptocurrencies,” he said...

- Source, Reuters, Read More Here

Monday, 24 June 2019

ECB Insiders Out Draghi as Fabricator & Schemer, and Talk to Reuters

Draghi’s shenanigans get hilarious, months before his term ends.

So here’s ECB President Mario Draghi, whose term ends in October, and he’s at the ECB Forum in Portugal, and in a speech on Tuesday titled innocuously, “Twenty Years of the ECB’s monetary policy” – so this wasn’t a press conference after an ECB policy meeting or anything, but a speech on history at an ECB Forum – he suddenly threw out a whole bunch of stuff…

How, “in the absence of improvement” of inflation, “additional stimulus will be required,” in form of “further cuts in policy interest rates” and additional bond purchases, and how “in the coming weeks, the Governing Council will deliberate how our instruments can be adapted commensurate to the severity of the risk to price stability,” and that “all these options were raised and discussed at our last meeting.”

Whoa! Wait a minute, said the good folks who were part of the ECB’s June meeting. These options were not discussed, they told Reuters on Tuesday.

Draghi had ventured out there on his own – apparently trying to push his colleagues into a corner single-handedly as his last hurrah.

His vision laid out on Tuesday was quite a change from the June 6 post-meeting announcement, which didn’t mention anything about even discussing rate cuts. It said that the ECB expects its policy rates to “remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020,” before the ECB would begin to raise them, with the bias still on raising rates, not cutting rates. That was less than two weeks ago, and there had not been another ECB policy meeting since then.

Interviewing six “sources” at the ECB with “direct knowledge of the situation,” Reuters found that these policy makers “had not expected such a strong message and that there was no consensus on the path ahead.”

At the June 6 policy meeting, any possibility of a rate cut or renewed asset purchases had been mentioned “only in passing” and without any substantive discussion. The discussion had instead focused on the new package of loans for the banks, the sources said.

The sources told Reuters that ECB policymakers were worried “Draghi was flagging his measures so strongly to markets as a ‘fait accompli’ that there would be no chance for them to disagree with them in at the next policy meeting on July 25,” Reuters reported.

“But they added that, with a global trade war escalating and financial worries around Italy already high, there was little appetite for a fight in July,” Reuters said.

Several sources told Reuters that, because very little new economic information on the Eurozone will come out before the July 25 meeting, “it would be difficult to justify coming to a different policy conclusion than in June.”

And at the June meeting, the conclusion was to delay rate hikes – and there was no mention of rate cuts.

The sources told Reuters that the debate about which policy measures to implement, when, and in what order was still wide open, with policy makers having very different opinions.

For some the first step should be a change in the ECB’s policy message. Others favor a reinforcement of the pledge not to raise rates for a longer time.

Others favor restarting the asset purchase program to bring borrowing costs down for governments so that they could spend more during a downturn, though that would be handicapped by the “issuer limit” that prevents the ECB from holding more than 30% of a country’s sovereign bonds. But the ECB could dispose or circumvent that limit, “some” sources said.

Some policymakers lean toward rate cuts, the sources said. And other policymakers think the ECB should not make any changes at all unless economic data deteriorated substantially and inflation expectations dropped further below the ECB’s target.

But there was no consensus, and there had been no substantive discussions of these topics at the last meeting that had focused on the modalities of the new bank loan package.

What is hilarious is how Draghi was outed as a fabricator and schemer on the very same day he made his additional-stimulus-will-be-required speech, by people who were surprised by his speech, some of whom felt “powerless,” as Reuters put it, and knew he was trying to box them into a corner with his devious move. This has the smell of a palace revolt at the ECB against the head honcho and his last hurrah.

- Source, Wolf Street

Sunday, 23 June 2019

Gold's Monster Rally, Can It Continue?

Gold’s rally isn’t over yet by any means, as one analyst sees the upward momentum continuing. 

Phil Streible, RJO Futures, told Kitco News that prices for the yellow metal may still see much higher levels from here. “We should continue to see that break through $1,400 and I anticipate that a lot of the short sellers will end up giving up at that level. 

So, no telling how high we can go from here, it’s kind of got that perfect storm going on with increasing geopolitical risks and then also a dovish Fed,” Streible said.

- Source, Kitco News

Friday, 21 June 2019

Are We Now Moving Toward a New Gold Standard?

Ronald Peter Stöferle and his colleague have published the annual “In Gold We Trust” report suggests that a world awash in debt is on the edge of a financial abyss.

- Source, Jay Taylor Media

Wednesday, 19 June 2019

The Currency Standard: A Playpen for Financial Predators

Main idea: Currency fluctuations are so independent of economic growth – and used as weapons by politicians. Moving to the gold standard is the only option.

The idea of trekking back through twentieth-century history to excavate the ruins of the gold standard seems downright retrograde — like returning to quill pens, horse-drawn carriages, or slavery, or wampum beads.

After all, didn’t John Maynard Keynes, hallowed English macroeconomist, call gold a “barbarous relic”?

To Paul Krugman, recent Nobel Prize-winning macroeconomist, the gold standard is a “mystical” repetition of the “sin of Midas.” Worshipping a shiny metal.

Let’s be clear — this is not a partisan issue.

Krugman, a self-described Liberal, often cites Milton Friedman, a Republican, who as early as 1951 made the case for banishing gold in favor of a free competitive float of currencies, rather than a flat rate. Friedman also fatefully counseled Richard Nixon to remove gold backing from the dollar in 1971.

Warren Buffett summed up the conventional view with his usual pith:

“Gold gets dug out of the ground . . . we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. . . . Anyone from Mars would be scratching their head.”

The gold standard has moved beyond the pale of respectable thought.

A bipartisan University of Chicago business school poll for a Wall Street Journal blog in 2012 found zero support for the gold standard.

Forty-three percent of the surveyed economists “disagreed” with returning to gold, and an additional 57% “strongly disagreed.”

That adds up to 100% — a “consensus” that might spark envy even in such airtight circles of “settled science” as a UN séance on climate change.

With a limited total tonnage, which could be stored in a single small room, gold is seen to suffer from an acute deflationary bias.That is, since the basic money supply cannot expand significantly, it is believed that money prices, including wages and salaries, have to shrink.

An American Tragedy Paved in Gold

Academics make the case that gold failed first under the stresses of World War I, when the combatant states defected, one after another, and most noncombatants followed.

Then it failed again in the Depression of the 1930s, with recovery coming to countries in the exact order of their departure from gold.

Finally it collapsed, seemingly for good, in the 1970s, when — with gold bleeding from the American trove of reserves and the French kibitzing sanctimoniously — Nixon tipped over the table and set up the dollar as the house money.

His Texas swagman John Connally explained the sophisticated strategic calculation behind Nixon’s move: “Foreigners are out to screw us. It’s our job to screw them first.”

Ultimately fatal for the gold standard, however, were studies focused on the 1930s by some of the world’s most respected economic statesmen and scholars.

From Friedman and Krugman, to former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and former White House chief economic advisor Christina Romer (chosen by Obama for her mastery of depression economics), all ascribed the Great Depression chiefly to the monetary shackles of the gold standard.

Friedman, who advised Richard Nixon on gold, did the most damage.

In his magisterial Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960, written with Anna Jacobson Schwartz, he tied the Depression directly to the Fed’s gold-based monetary policy.

Supposedly, that forced a 40% money supply collapse amid the carnage of failing banks between 1929 and 1931.

Crediting Friedman, Bernanke’s influential paper “The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison” focused on how the Depression ended.

He showed that Japan bolted from the standard first in 1931, with Britain close behind, and that they led the world in recovery. Next came Germany (1932), the United States (1933), and recalcitrant, gold-grasping France (1936).

After Roosevelt abandoned gold in 1933, as Romer points out, U.S. industrial output lurched up 57% between March and July, apparently exulting over escape from its gilded cage.

Now, it is clear that if you are in a global depression, with a third of the workforce unemployed and communists marching in the streets (and in the White House advising you on money), the best course may not be to sit around counting your ingots and reflecting on the lucrative gold backing of the Industrial Revolution.

A better, faster, truer replacement for the gold standard, we are to believe, is the high-technology “information standard.”

All Hail the New Gold Standard

If you have an information economy, with wealth as knowledge and growth as learning, you want a monetary system that rapidly conveys crucial information on prices in time and space.

And there has never been an information system so global, so fast, so robust, as the foreign exchange trading system of convertible currencies.

This awesome, multidimensional system, spanning the globe and extending into the future, enables any company anywhere at any moment to exchange goods and services for money with customers in other countries — without risk.

It enables world trade, globalization, integrated markets, and multinational corporations. It provides a cosmopolitan carpet for courtesy and commerce in the modern world. It garners profits, fees, and margins for its providers, while enabling commerce for the companies that use the services.

This trading system for floating currencies is Milton Friedman’s dream.

But it also reflects the concept of “spontaneous order,” a mainstay of the Austrian school of Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig von Mises, famed Austrian economists who influenced the modern libertarian movement.

On the world’s most advanced computer networks, this trading system links the thousands of foreign exchange desks of all the major banks and other financial institutions — thousands of hedge funds and specialized dealers, and scores of principal trading funds (PTFs, mostly automated high-frequency operators, the so-called “flash boys”).

It brings in multinational corporations that command sufficient international business to support their own trading desks. They all work in parallel, with no central coordination, to arrive instantaneously at convertible currency prices around the world.

The volume of currency exchange dwarfs by orders of magnitude all other economic measurements—GDP, global trade, Internet transactions, industrial production, Google searches, global stock market exchanges, global commodity values, and even derivatives.

Every three years, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland, adds it all up on a “net-net” basis, adjusted to nullify double counting from local and cross-border transfers between dealers.

By this careful metric, BIS in April 2013 identified a flow of some $5.3 trillion a day, more than a third of all U.S. annual GDP every 24 hours.

The 2013 total signified currency transactions throughout the year and around the globe at a rate of more than $600 million every second.

And by 2016, that number was still running strong at $5.1 trillion per day.

The benefits of such a system cannot be ignored.

It provides entrepreneurs with accurate measurements of the relative value of all the world’s hundreds of different moneys. And it makes mutually interchangeable funds available on the spot without currency risk.

In other words, with vastly greater speed and automated efficiency, the system performs the role previously played by the gold standard.

Yet it also enables every country to follow its own monetary policy.

In light of this indispensable double service — combining two apparently incompatible goals — no one has complained about inadequate liquidity or performance.

To its advocates, this market’s rapid growth attests to its usefulness and robust results.

Nonetheless, as one might suspect in the wake of the global crash led by the same big banks, the system is less than impeccable...

- Source, Laissez Faire

Monday, 17 June 2019

Silver Prices at 26 Year Low in Relation to Gold, Should Investors Buy?

The price of silver in comparison with the price of gold is at a 26-year low. The ratio of gold price to silver price is currently around 90, the highest after March 1993. A higher ratio indicates that silver is much cheaper than gold. If silver is so cheap relative to gold, should investors consider buying the precious metal?

The ratio, calculated by dividing the current price of gold by the price of silver, indicates how the two metals are performing against each other.

“Despite the persistent challenges that silver has faced, we remain cautiously positive about the price outlook for the rest of 2019.” The consultancy believes that the lacklustre macro-economic backdrop will favour renewed investment into gold, which in turn should also benefit silver," said Philip Newman, Director of Metal Focus.

The reason for the cautious approach is that while gold may see safe haven buying, half of silver’s demand comes from industries, a segment that itself is subdued following the re-emergence of a trade war.

Metals Focus states in its just-launched Silver Focus 2019 report, “Year-end, we think prices will struggle to surpass $18, a level not seen since the third quarter of 2017. On annual average basis, we see prices averaging $15.60.” In 2019 so far, silver price have averaged $15.23 and ounce.

In other words, investing in silver could give 20 per cent returns in 2019. India’s silver investment market size was 1,680 tonnes in 2018 making India the world's largest investor in silver.

“Silver’s fundamental as precious metals is turning good though for some more time investors have to live with high ratio of above 80. Base metals looking subdued impacting silver demand to that extent,” said Naveen Mathur, head of commodities and currencies at Anand Rathi Commodities. He added that he did not see big returns from silver in the near future.

India has emerged as a big investment destination for silver. So far, its biggest consumer segments were jewellery and silverware. Although both have shown a marked a positive growth and have contributed towards keeping the overall global demand positive, silver demand grew at a handsome 30 per cent in India.

According to Metal Focus’ Silver Focus 2019 report, “2018 saw strong demand for 1kg and 5kg bars, compared to 15kg and 30kg bars in 2017, which suggests that small retail investors have returned to the market.”

The demand for slver in India is price sensitive and traditional investors also keep a portion of investment for trading or buying low and selling high.

Debajit Saha, senior analyst for India and UAE with GFMS TR, another global research firm, said that “India’s import in March quarter was 1310 tonnes which is higher by 9 per cent but in February silver price increased to Rs.40, 000 per kilo, investors offloaded 180 tons silver (bought at a little lower price and booked trading profit) resulting in higher domestic supply.” He is very optimistic about silver demand further increasing in June quarter."

Thursday, 13 June 2019

Job Openings Fall In April, Layoffs Pick Up

After February's big dip, and March's rebound, April Job Openings data was expected to extend the bounce modestly in April but it did not.

April Job Openings fell to 7.449 million (7.496 million expected) from a revised lower 7.474 million in March, but Job Openings remain above the number of unemployed workers in America for the 14th month in a row...

There are 0.78 unemployed job seekers for each available job.

Quits reached a new record high but layoffs also ticked higher...

Layoffs and discharges at 1.2% in 2019 vs 1.1% in March

1,752,000 people were fired or laid off in April vs 1,788,000 in April last year

An additional 344,000 people left their employer due to retirements, transfers to other locations, death, and separations due to disability.

On the heels of Friday's dismal payrolls print, this weaker JOLTS print suggests perhaps the jobs outlook is not as rosy as many perceive.

- Source, Zero Hedge

Tuesday, 11 June 2019

Why A Lack Of Discovery Is A Good Thing

With gold prices having traded range-bound for most of 2019, miners should be more focused on creating value through discovery, which the industry is lacking, said David Suda, CEO of TerraX Minerals.

“The opportunity for us is in the fact that producing gold companies have actually had a lack of discovery. They haven’t spent money on exploration, and all the major gold companies in the world can merge with each other until they go blue in the face, they’re not going to come up with a discovery that way, and I think that’s what the opportunity here is,” Suda told Kitco News on the sidelines of the 121 Mining conference in New York.

- Source, Kitco News

Monday, 10 June 2019

Even if the Fed cuts rates this summer, it could be too late to stop a recession

Even if the Federal Reserve does what the market wants and lowers interest rates this summer, things may already be too far gone, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Fed cuts may come too late,” Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a note to clients Monday. “Fed could cut as soon as July but it may not halt slowdown/recession.”

The economy is already facing some “very real macro risks” including weak jobs data, low inflation and escalating trade tensions, Wilson said.

The market is expecting a rate cut by July by the Fed in response to diving bond yields, volatile stock markets and some sings of weakness. On Friday, May payrolls came in much lower-than-expected and the markets rallied in hopes that the Fed would start cutting as soon as July.

Paired with the “falling rate of inflation and the inability to hits its 2 percent goal” and trade tensions weighing on business confidence, the Fed’s rate cut won’t halt a weakening economy, Wilson said.

Morgan Stanley changed its forecast for global growth to “stagnation” through the end of the year instead of a “continued recovery.”

Investors should stay defensive, despite a more dovish Federal Reserve, Wilson said.

“Investor enthusiasm around the idea of easier Fed policy is understandable,” Wilson said. “However, if the Fed were to cut out of concern that we are entering a real unemployment cycle, we think such a cut should not be bought. Until there is further clarity on the employment picture, we think Friday’s rally should be faded and investors should continue to skew portfolios defensively.”

Wilson said to keep “a cautious eye toward expensive growth stocks that are now at a greater risk of missing earnings estimates due to these very real macro economic risks.”

- Source, CNBC

Friday, 7 June 2019

Sorry Silver Price, You May Need To Wait It Out

Silver prices are not likely to catch up to gold soon, said Jon Lamb, portfolio manager of Orion Resource Partners. 

In an interview with Kitco News on the sidelines of the 121 Mining Investment Conference in New York, Lamb said that when looking at silver in historical terms, prices may remain depressed when compared to gold. 

“Right now, the gold-silver ratio, thinking about it in historical terms, is going to remain at these high levels,” he said.

- Source, Kitco News

Wednesday, 5 June 2019

Gregory Mannarino: We're on Notice Protecting Us From Our Own Accounts

Renowned stock trading coach Gregory Mannarino, known as "The Robin Hood of Wall Street," answers YOUR QUESTIONS in this fast-paced and wide-ranging interview. The expose starts with this week's sobering printed notification from one of the largest US online banks to all account holders that they will be subject to a clamp-down on access to their funds.

Tuesday, 4 June 2019

Catherine Austin Fitts: Inflation is Already Here

Just because trillions of dollars are “missing” and the federal budgets are now “secret” doesn’t mean you cannot see the effects of all the massive amounts of money created. 

It’s is showing up in the form of inflation, not official inflation calculated by the government, but real inflation for the man on the street. Investment advisor and former Assistant Secretary of Housing Catherine Austin Fitts contends, “The U.S. dollar is getting debased.

Inflation is already here. If you are looking at an area with a 14% increase in the cost of goods year over year and your income isn’t rising, or it’s falling, we are already there. It’s not hyperinflation, but it is very significant inflation. 

It you look at the controls they have put on globally to fight inflation, they are quite significant. The U.S. debt went up 6% last year, and it’s estimated to go up 8% this year. God forbid we try to start any of the wars rattling around the world because the debt will skyrocket. 

We are in a spiral upward on the amount of debt. Next year, the social security fund will go negative cash flow. 

In other words, it’s going to stop being a net buyer of Treasuries and is going to be a net seller of Treasuries, which means if the foreigners are not buying, it’s down to the U.S. pension funds and the Fed.” Fitts says “invest in real things” such as gold, silver, and she “loves farmland.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Sunday, 2 June 2019

New IMF Report: We've Reached 100% Risk Level

Have you been told that the International Monetary Fund (IMF,) which is comprised of 189 of the world's 196 nations, recently released their Global Financial Stability Report, for the FIRST TIME EVER pegs us at 100% risk level for sovereign debt failure? 

Lynette Zang, chief research analyst at ITM Trading, returns to Reluctant Preppers to expose why this record risk rating by the IMF is of grave importance to all of us. Lynette also answers a large number of your viewer questions, in this wide-ranging interview!