Ron Paul: Grave Danger Of China Collapse

Trade war with US, Hong Kong protests showing no signs of slowing - is China on the verge of a collapse? If the collapse does come, what next? Are America's fingerprints on the protests, as China claims?

- Source, Ron Paul

Peak Prosperity: The Hard Truth

Why hard assets are so important given the current state of global markets.

"It’s very easy to get sucked into the mini dramas playing out across our digital screens. Trump Tweeted this while the stock market did that. 

Uh oh! Somebody’s experiencing something awful, or having a stroke of great fortune. 

Hey, look: Kittens! Watching CNN often feels like the inept product of a university committee that sought to create a program of sensitivity training for adult sufferers of acute ADHD. 

After just five minutes you know what it’s like to be trapped in a brain that’s distracted part way through every thought pattern and cannot maintain enough attention to form a coherent sequitur. 

However, if we set these entirely useless distractions aside it’s quite apparent that something big is going on. And it’s not positive."

- Source, Peak Prosperity

Hold Off on Hopes of More Fed Cuts Later, Said Expert

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2008 at this week’s meeting but is likely to pause the rate cut cycle after that, this according to Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group. 

“It’s usually not just one cut, it’s usually the beginning of a rate cutting cycle, and they’re hoping for more, but I don’t think the Fed is initially going to give the market any tilt in that direction just yet,” Boockvar told Kitco News.

- Source, Kitco News

Charles Nenner : New Gold Bull Market $2500 AT LEAST

Last time Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner was on USAWatchdog.com, he said “gold was going up” and “interest rates were going to continue to fall.” 

He was correct and says those two trends are going to continue. Nenner says, “We are in a new bull market in gold, and the price is headed to at least $2,500 per ounce.

The stock market is going to continue to go down over the next 2 ½ years.” Nenner is standing by his call he’s had in place for years for a “bottom in the DOW at 5,000.” Nenner is not backing off that call one bit. So, you’ve been warned.

- Source, USA Watchdog

Bill Murhphy: Gold is Behaving Like I've Never Seen Before...

When Bill Murphy, legendary crusader for the truth on gold, and co-founder of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA.org,) declares that gold is behaving differently than he has ever witnessed in his decades of studying the precious metals markets and manipulations, those wanting to be aware and prepared would do well to sit up and take notice.

- Source, Reluctant Preppers

The Wolf Report: Is the Everything Bubble Ripe Yet?

Suddenly, I mean the signs had been everywhere for a long time and “suddenly” doesn’t really apply, the whole house of cards came tumbling down.

- Source, The Wolf Report

The Biggest Bubble Ever: The Burst Will Be A Disaster

Extreme spending... extreme debt... extreme welfare... extreme militarism... extreme Socialists... extreme Cronyism... 

All at same time! The biggest bubble to ever exist is heading for disaster.

- Source, Ron Paul

Max Keiser: Bitcoin Will Outperform Everything Including Warren Buffett

Max Keiser of the Keiser Reports Talks the Real Deal on Bitcoin – Which he says is going to crush the U.S. dollar and "blow the roof" off of every bank in America. 

With bitcoin rebounding from the lows in early 2019 to more than $11,000 a coin, we take a look at Keiser's comments about the next bitcoin rally.

- Source, Kitco News

Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On the State of the Economy

Ray Dalio is the founder and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world. Dalio is sharing his template for understanding debt crises, which he says helped him and his fund foresee and navigate the financial crisis.

- Source, Business Insider

Could The FED be Wrong About the Rate Cut?

The Federal Reserve may not need to be cutting rates in today’s market environment, said Peter Tuchman, NYSE trader of Quattro M Securities. 

“The market is trading at record highs. Does it need a stimulus now? So, basically, economic data that’s coming out right now doesn’t seem like it should be pointing in that direction. 

It seems that for the first time in many, many years, it’s a decision based on forward looking sentiment,” Tuchman told Kitco News.

- Source, Kitco News

Global Economy Braces for a Fresh Trade Blow

Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here.

The global economy, already forecast to post the weakest growth since the financial crisis, is bracing for a fresh blow with Donald Trump’s latest threat to ratchet up his tariff war with China.

The U.S. president’s abrupt announcement Thursday of 10% levies on $300 billion of Chinese goods -- expected to include smartphones, computers and clothing -- raises the risk of a global recession, testing the ability of central banks to prevent it with the limited monetary policy ammunition they have.

Trump’s threat came a week after the International Monetary Fund further lowered its global growth outlook and suggested that policy “missteps” on trade and Brexit could derail a projected rebound. And it was just one day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell flagged tariff tensions as a reason for the central bank’s first interest-rate cut in more than a decade, mentioning the word “trade” more than two dozen times during his news conference.

“The trade war between the U.S. and China is going to lead to slower growth in both of them,” said Jay Bryson, acting chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co. “You get a little bit concerned because central banks around the world generally don’t have as much conventional ammunition to respond to a big slowdown as they did in other sorts of cycles.”

Treasury yields plummeted Thursday on the trade news, while U.S. stocks headed for their biggest weekly drop since May. The dollar extended losses.

After Trump’s tweets announcing the new tariffs, the president told reporters that the 10% levy “is for a short-term period and then I can always do much more or I can do less depending on what happens with respect to a deal.” The tariffs could eventually rise to 25% or even higher, he said.

What Our Economists Say

“An escalation of the U.S.–China trade war piles downward pressure onto an already-slowing global economy and raises the chances of further monetary stimulus. If higher tariffs go into effect, chilling business confidence and hobbling market sentiment, we’d anticipate a further 75 basis points in rate cuts from the Fed by year-end, with the People’s Bank of China moving in the same direction.”-- Tom Orlik and Carl Riccadonna, economistsClick here to read the full note.

Hours before Trump’s comments, IMF acting chief David Lipton told CNBC that the global economy is “fragile” and that “it makes sense for the central banks of the world to remain accommodative.”

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note that a U.S. recession is likely within three quarters if the planned 10% tariffs on $300 billion of goods increase to 25% and remain for four to six months. That’s because about two-thirds of the merchandise consists of consumer goods and autos and parts, which have the potential for greater economic impact than the prior U.S. levies.

“This raises the risk of a recession in the U.S.,” said Ryan Sweet, head of monetary-policy research at Moody’s Analytics Inc. “Consumer confidence is still high but business confidence has really fallen sharply since trade tensions have escalated. Trade uncertainty is on top of businesses’ mind. I’m more and more concerned you will start to see businesses cut back on workers.”

Trump’s announcement came just before the Labor Department’s payrolls report Friday, which is forecast to show job gains moderated to a still-solid 165,000 in July from 224,000 as the unemployment rate declined back to a half-century low of 3.6%. The payroll forecast echoes expectations for a gradual deceleration in the labor market, rather than a sharp decline.

“While the direct impact of these tariffs (if imposed) will be modest, they have the potential to hurt global growth more substantially through a negative impact on already weak business sentiment,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts Joseph Lupton and Olya Borichevska said in a note.

Key to the global growth outlook will be the reaction of major central banks. Deutsche Bank Securities Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti and his colleagues said in a note that Trump’s move increases the chances that the Fed will reduce rates by a half point next month.

- Source, Yahoo Finance

How Close Is China To A Financial Crisis?

China haters have been waiting for a financial crisis out of China since at least the early 2000s. Each and every time, the People’s Bank of China’s plunge protection team or the central planners in Beijing would throw buckets of ice water on their heads.

This time might be different. This time they are dealing with a trade war.

Most investment banks have some proprietary model that gives their fund managers a gauge on crises. For Nomura Securities, no country is flashing red more than China.

“China has the second-highest number of flashing early warning indicators after Hong Kong,” says Rob Subbaraman, an Asia economist for Nomura in Singapore. Months of protests against an stalled prisoner extradition bill with China have turned into protests against the Hong Kong government, with the very real possibility of the U.S. doing away with its special trade relationship with Hong Kong. If that ever happened, the Hong Kong dollar would no longer be a de facto source of U.S. dollars for mainland China, assuming Washington included Hong Kong in its mainland China tariff regime.

Chinese policymakers need to guard against a renewed build-up of financial stability risks, Subbaraman says.

Out of 60 early warning indicators flashing on Nomura’s Cassandra risk assessment program, Hong Kong has 49 covered. China has 25. The U.S. has precisely zero.
- Source, Forbes