'Tis Gold's season to be jolly. Or better stated, 'twasGold's season to be jolly, that to expect same today may well be folly.
"You're not going to upset that apple cart, are you mmb?"
Now just bear up, Squire: you shan't get this anywhere else, so pay attention. 'Tis our wont to upgrade your wisdom from conventional to informed. To be sure, in this business nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen, however we attempt to stay above water in being guided by experience from that which has been happening, toward assessing one's expectations and in turn managing one's risk moving forward.
So from the "What's Been Happening Dept.", here we go with that from the past which we know.
Clearly one of the most heavily traded periods of the year across the spectrum of the BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P) is from the day after StateSide Labor Day (first Monday in September) through the day before StateSide Thanksgiving (last Thursday in November). Indeed for the first full 19 years of this century, more stock market futures contract volume has traded in the September-November period than in any other discreet three-month period, (i.e. Dec-Feb, Mar-May and Jun-Aug).
Thus this Monday being Labor Day, come Tuesday for some 11 weeks right up to Thanksgiving 'tis "GAME ON!"
And by conventional wisdom along with its aforementioned seasonality rationale, there's thought to be within such overall market chaos the shining safe haven of Gold. One only has to look at the following table of this century's first decade of Gold's performance from Labor Day to Thanksgiving, i.e. each year from 2001 through 2010: seven of those ten years posted net increases for that period for an average gain of +7.2%, the losing years in tow being comparatively mild, and the high price generally coming after the low price. Jolly indeed:
"But since then, mmb?"
The truth can hurt, Squire, but we put it out there such that it can be anticipated and negotiated. Here is the like table during this century's second decade (nine full years thus far for those of you who know how to properly count) of Gold's performance from Labor Day to Thanksgiving, i.e. each year from 2011 through 2019, with 2020 now in the balance. And but for two meager up years, the other seven posted net decreases for that period for an average loss of -5.4%, the low price dominantly coming after the high price. Folly indeed:
Do we thus conclude that Gold's once-heralded positive seasonality for this time of year is a thing of the past? Not comprehensively, of course. Still, with specific respect to such seasonality kicking in this time 'round -- and given as written "nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen" -- bear in mind that the trend is one's friend. Or as Will Rogers perfectly put it: "Only buy the stocks that go up; if they don't go up, don't buy 'em."
And by conventional wisdom along with its aforementioned seasonality rationale, there's thought to be within such overall market chaos the shining safe haven of Gold. One only has to look at the following table of this century's first decade of Gold's performance from Labor Day to Thanksgiving, i.e. each year from 2001 through 2010: seven of those ten years posted net increases for that period for an average gain of +7.2%, the losing years in tow being comparatively mild, and the high price generally coming after the low price. Jolly indeed:
"But since then, mmb?"
The truth can hurt, Squire, but we put it out there such that it can be anticipated and negotiated. Here is the like table during this century's second decade (nine full years thus far for those of you who know how to properly count) of Gold's performance from Labor Day to Thanksgiving, i.e. each year from 2011 through 2019, with 2020 now in the balance. And but for two meager up years, the other seven posted net decreases for that period for an average loss of -5.4%, the low price dominantly coming after the high price. Folly indeed:
Do we thus conclude that Gold's once-heralded positive seasonality for this time of year is a thing of the past? Not comprehensively, of course. Still, with specific respect to such seasonality kicking in this time 'round -- and given as written "nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen" -- bear in mind that the trend is one's friend. Or as Will Rogers perfectly put it: "Only buy the stocks that go up; if they don't go up, don't buy 'em."
- Source, Silver Bear Cafe
