Silver the Star Performer in Recent Precious Metals Rally

Silver’s performance in the recent precious metals rally has been quite spectacular rising around 13% in a matter of days, before drifting back a little along with gold as the initial momentum has left the market. Undoubtedly some of the cream will have been due to short covering, but the movement does suggest that should there be a significant upwards move in the gold price, as some technical analysts suggest, then the potential for a much more dramatic rise in silver is very much with us. Conversely, of course, should the gold price fall back drastically between now and the end of the year, silver investors could face some very sharp losses such is the metal’s volatility in comparison with its yellow sibling.

Indeed over the past year silver has seen some dramatic price movements – mostly adverse if one is a silver investor. As recently as last August silver was riding high just above $24, before falling back to around $18.70 at the beginning of this month. However this has changed recently and a measure of the extent by which silver has outperformed gold over the past two months is that the Gold:Silver ratio (GSR) has come down from a high point of close to 67 to under 63 ( 62.4 at the time of writing). The out and out silver bulls are looking for the GSR to fall to around 16:1 – the so-called historic level – but this kind of ratio has only been seen in recent years when the Hunt Brothers almost succeeded in cornering the silver market in 1980 and our view is that this kind of level is unlikely to be seen again unless some kind of similar pricing anomaly is repeated.

And if anything, any silver-price market manipulation by the big money and high frequency traders has caused the GSR to move in the opposite direction over the past two to three years. If this type of manipulation is indeed the case we could yet see a reversal in the ratio should there be seen to be major profits in it but anything below perhaps around a GSR of 35 as seen when silver peaked at close to $50 an ounce in April 2011 seems to this observer to be highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. The most likely positive this observer feels that the silver investor might hope for in the near future is a ratio of between 50 to 60 – which at the current gold price would suggest a silver price of between $26 and perhaps $22. It might not take much of a move to see the latter level, but barring a huge gold price escalation (which would likely see a GSR of well below 50 given silver’s increased volatility) we don’t see a silver price rise back to near $50 in the near future – but beyond that who knows?

If anything the silver price is hugely difficult to forecast – more so perhaps than any other precious metal given its quasi-monetary attributes along with substantial industrial usage and ever continuing investment demand. On the supply side, most is mined as a by-product of lead/zinc or gold mines and while primary silver mines have seen something of an upturn in recent years it still makes silver output highly dependent on the production of other metals and thus on extraneous supply/demand economics.


On the demand side there is still a major element of investment hoarding – particularly in terms of silver coins in the West and silver investment jewellery in Asia, but a dichotomy here is that the major silver analysts seem to treat investment silver as potential above-ground supply and thereby reckon that silver is in a major surplus position. These same analysts don’t seem to treat gold in a similar manner.

On the industrial front, photographic silver demand, which used to be its major usage, has been declining for years with the onset of digital photographic technology. But to set against this a good proportion of photographic silver was recycled, while many current, and growing, usages – particularly in the medical and biocide field – are often unrecoverable - or at least not economically so at present. There is considerable offtake in the electronics sector too, and again recycling is not strong. As to the decline in photographic silver this is subject to the law of diminishing returns and any continuing fall-off here is becoming relatively insignificant.

So the future path of the silver price is tough to call. This observer sees it as virtually wholly dependent on gold price movement despite its industrial usage attributes which should see it benefiting from any economic upturn. However, for the gamblers among us it remains the most interesting of the precious metals. Should gold move sharply upwards, silver would likely soar, creating some big gains,although on the downside gold’s possible percentage decline looks pretty limited, but silver’s much less so due to its hugely higher volatility.

- Source, Mineweb

Thomas Edison’s Dream Smashed

Here's Why Gold Is Going Higher

Gold is trading around its two-month highs but legendary technical analyst John Bollinger thinks the run has only just begun.

Bollinger is the inventor of “Bollinger bands,” a popular technical tool that charts price relative to recent movements. The price of the asset—be it a stock or commodity or whatever—is considered high if it’s on the upper band and low if it’s on the lower band.

In an interview with “Talking Numbers,” Bollinger uses the bands to explain why he thinks gold will go higher. But, he doesn’t just use them on gold. Instead, he is also looks at charts of gold miner stocks for signals as well.



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The US Economy Is Still in the High Danger Zone

By Dennis Miller

I hate being the bearer of bad news.

I remember the one and only time in my life I agreed to umpire a Little League game behind the plate. My youngest son was on the mound, and his older brother came to bat. The count went to 3-2, and I realized I had a huge knot in my stomach.

I said to myself, “God, please let him swing and hit the ball!” And he did. I don’t even recall where it went; I was just thankful I didn’t have to make a call that would have meant bad news for one of them.

Calling it the way you see it may be a good way to live your life, but it isn’t always fun.

I have been harping on the Federal Reserve policy of artificially keeping down interest rates since it started over five years ago.

Nothing has changed; in fact, you could make the case that things have gotten worse. Although there are rumors that the Fed may end QE in September or October of this year, I am not holding my breath. Right now, they are still flooding the banking system with billions of dollars per month, and finally the baby boomers—10,000 of whom are turning 65 every day now, for the next 16 years—are starting to understand what we already know.

Low Interest Rates Are Killing Savers…

In a recent Bloomberg article, Bill Gross of PIMCO (the world’s biggest bond fund) calls the minimal returns that savers and income investors have seen from bank deposits and fixed-income securities a “financial repression.”

“I hate to be gloomy,” said 69-year-old billionaire Gross, “but, yes, for the next 10 years, the oldsters, and I’m in that camp, are going to be disappointed in terms of the policy rate.”

Former President of the Atlanta Fed William Ford chimed in, saying that current low US Treasury yields reduce conservative investors’ income by at least $280 billion annually.

“The costs of low interest rates are being ignored,” Ford said. “It is killing savers, elderly savers who are living on life savings that have been conservatively invested.”

Can it get any more depressing?

Yes: according to the Department of Labor, due to lack of yield from savings and investments, workers 65 and older are the only group of Americans who are increasingly employed or looking for jobs.

… and Keep the US Economy from Recovering

In a March 10 article in Gold-Eagle, author Ian Gordon joins the critical voices. “This is unprecedented,” he writes; “there has never been a time that the entire world has been subjected to such dishonest money that can be created at the whim of unelected bureaucrats acting on behalf of their private shareholders.”

And legendary investor Jeremy Grantham told the Sydney Morning Herald that the US Federal Reserve is killing the recovery of the world’s biggest economy:

“My view of the economy is not principle-based. Higher interest rates would have increased the wealth of savers. Instead, they have become collateral damage of Bernanke’s policies. […]

There is no evidence at all that quantitative easing has boosted capital spending. We have always come roaring back from recessions, even after the mismanaged Great Depression. This time we are not. It’s anecdotal evidence, but we have never had such a limited recovery.”

As you can tell, I could keep going and going.

If it weren’t so sad, I would have been tempted to laugh when I read an RT article titled “’Too big to fail’ status gives US banks a ‘free pass’—Fed Study.”

According to the article (emphasis in original): “The new research shows ‘it is improper to ask the taxpayer to underwrite the non-commercial banking operations of a complex bank holding company,’ Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told Reuters in an interview.”

Boy, are these folks slow on the uptake. I could have told them that even before the 2008 crash, and without spending millions of dollars on a high-falutin’ study.

The top 10 banks in America, says the article, now have combined assets of about $9.72 trillion (that’s compared to a total GDP of $15 trillion in 2012).

“The banks are still gambling with FDIC-insured money,” says Ted Kaufman, a former US Senator from Delaware. “The JPMorgan Chase ‘London Whale’ fiasco was just the latest proof that there has been no change in the casino speculation of Wall Street banks.”

“No one has gone to jail,” Kaufman predicted. “And no one will. There are many examples of criminal behavior during the meltdown, but not one megabank executive has been jailed. Without that deterrent, white-collar crime is not just profitable but inevitable.”

Enough Already!

We all get the point—the Federal Reserve is bailing out the banking system. And to do so, it’s keeping interest rates suppressed, forcing American savers and income investors to put more money at risk than we should have to.

And that’s not going to change with the new Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who flat-out tells us that “the Fed still thinks rates should remain low to stimulate borrowing, spending, and economic growth. I think this extraordinary commitment is still needed and will be for some time, and I believe that view is widely held by my fellow policymakers at the Fed.”

Of course there is no evidence that any of the policies have actually worked… so we’re on our own to maintain and/or enhance our standard of living.

High Danger of Wildfires

I am generally considered a pretty positive guy, but even I have been wondering if this artificial propping up of the economy and stock markets will ever stop.

Last month, my wife Jo and I were staying in Arizona. A couple of days after a heavy rainstorm, we drove through Tonto National Forest. There was a Smokey the Bear cutout next to a meter with color-coded markings outlining the danger level of a forest fire, and it was at light yellow.

I’ve never seen it light yellow before, very close to the green that signals “all clear.” Late last summer, when we last visited, it was way over in the red with a high-danger signal.

Unfortunately our economy is still in the high-danger zone. I hope to live long enough to tell everyone that I see the threat moved back to Smokey pointing at light yellow. I just don’t see it, despite what we read in the mainstream press. As I said, calling them the way I see them is not always fun—but there is a silver lining…

Here’s One Big Positive for All of Us

Good friend Chuck Butler of EverBank writes a terrific report each day called the Daily Pfennig. In a recent issue he wrote:

“I do believe that quite a few people in their 50s and 60s are about to find out that the money they’ve set aside for retirement is too meager to support the standard of living they’d hoped for, and then the forecast for a retirement system crisis will become reality, and then it will be too late!”

Chuck would be the first to agree that none of us has to be in that group—that is, the people who wear their rose-colored glasses until it is too late to change anything. His readers and our subscribers are some of the best-informed people on the planet. We simply refuse to fall in the category of helpless citizens that are termed “collateral damage.”

Intelligent investors who can see the truth are inherently problem solvers. Tell us the rules, and we will figure out a way to survive. We’ll do much better than the masses who may not be as well informed or, worse yet, may be listening to those who don’t have their best interests at heart.

Personally, I have never felt as confident as I do today, even though the economy is in terrible shape. We have a plan in place—a solid diversification strategy coupled with position limits and stop losses—and I’m proud of our track record of great yield as well as our safety measures to limit risk.

There’s one strategy in particular that I recommend for every conservative investor: I call it my “Paychecks” strategy because it’s like getting a steady paycheck—without having to work for it. If that sounds too good to be true, it’s not; the secret is a special way to invest in dividend-paying stocks. It’s all laid out in my special report Money Every Month, which also includes my favorite stocks that you can use to implement this simple strategy. Click here to read Money Every Month now.

The article The US Economy Is Still in the High-Danger Zone was originally published at millersmoney.com.

Good Reason for Doom and Gloom

By Doug French, Contributing Editor

Predicting the future, like getting old, ain’t for sissies. Questioning the bull market is even more treacherous.

Howard Gold, writing for MarketWatch, makes fun of seers who made what he calls “the four worst predictions to gain traction over the past few years.”

Gold says the last six years have been a disaster for those who stayed out of the stock market. He claims there’s a bull market in doom and gloom, referring to a column by his colleague Chuck Jaffe, who points out, “The fortune-tellers … know that the more outrageous the prediction, the more attention they get. They can highlight any forecasts they get right, knowing that their misfires are forgotten quickly. Thus, calamity and catastrophe sells. Right now, it’s a bull market for bearish forecasts.”

If such a bull market in doom were really happening, the market wouldn’t be hitting all-time highs. Besides, no one ever went broke being out of the market.

But more importantly, there is a very good reason people respond to gloomy forecasts. Behavioral economics pioneer and 2002 Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman explains in his bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow that when people compare losses and gains, they weigh losses more heavily. There’s an evolutionary reason for this: “Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce,” Kahneman explains.

Most people, when given the opportunity to win $150 or lose $100 on a coin flip, decline the bet because the fear of losing $100 is more intense than the hope of gaining $150. Kahneman writes that the typical loss aversion ratio seen in most experiments is 1.5 to 2.5. Professional stock traders have much higher tolerance for risk, but most people investing their retirement accounts are not pros and have little fortitude for losses.

The average Joe can’t just sit tight while his retirement account drops 40%. He’s not wired that way. His retirement savings represent safety, and a market crash is the modern equivalent of a flood, a bear, or a warring tribe. When stocks start falling, survival mode kicks in. He or she sells and runs for cover.

So when someone makes a compelling case that stocks might crash, the average person rightly listens. Otherwise they don’t get any sleep.

Gloomy Forecasts

Economist and financial newsletter writer Harry Dent predicted the DJIA would crash to 3,000 and told investors to bail out between early 2012 and late 2013. Some people likely took him up on it. In July 2010, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave fame predicted the DJIA would fall to well below 1,000 over the ensuing five or six years.

“I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’” Prechter told the New York Times. “Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.”

While Prechter sees massive deflation on the horizon, Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation is on the way. Gold calls this “the single worst prediction of the past five years.” Gold calls Faber wacky for telling Bloomberg in 2009:

I am 100% sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation. Not tomorrow, but the problem with the government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the Fed should increase interest rates, they’ll be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate.

Peter Schiff’s call for $5,000/oz gold also has Mr. Gold laughing. Schiff sees the Fed printing more to stimulate the economy, which will send the yellow metal soaring.

“Back in the real world,” sneers Gold, “new Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is actually winding down the Fed’s extra bond buying (quantitative easing, or QE), and she’s on pace to finish by fall.”

Europe’s economic problems had establishment news outlets like The Economist saying in November 2011, the euro “could break up within weeks.” President Obama’s former chief economist, Austan Goolsbee, said “there probably isn’t” any way to hold the eurozone together.

And the ultimate establishment voice, Alan Greenspan, told CNBC the divergent cultures using one currency “simply can’t continue to work.”

So it’s not just wackadoodles wearing tinfoil hats missing the mark, as Mr. Gold implies. He writes, “But too many people have lost precious time and a chance to make real money by listening to these fear mongers. They’re probably kicking themselves now, or should be.”

However, nearly all of the gloomy prognostications Gold makes fun of are in response to the actions of central bankers, who have been at least as wrong as anyone else in their predictions.

Big financial-services companies should be kicking themselves for paying Greenspan $100,000 a speech these days. The Maestro reportedly hauled in an $8.5 million advance for his book, The Age of Turbulence. That’s a lot to pay for someone who whiffed on the housing bubble. In 2002, Greenspan said, “Even if a bubble were to develop in a local market, it would not necessarily have implications for the nation as a whole.”

Ben Bernanke, who used to make $200,000 a year, now makes “that in just a few hours speaking to bankers, hedge fund billionaires and leaders of industry,” the New York Times reports. “This year alone, he is poised to make millions of dollars from speaking engagements.”

He hasn’t exactly been an accurate predictor either. In 2005, Ben Bernanke was asked if the housing market was overheated. “Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise,” he replied. “It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”

Even former Treasury Secretary and ex-New York Fed President Tim Geithner is getting in on the action, receiving $100,000 to $200,000 per talk. Plus he likely received a large advance for his book Stress Test.

Geithner admits he didn’t see the financial crisis coming. In his review of Geithner’s book, Flash Boys author Michael Lewis writes, “The story Geithner goes on to tell blames everyone and no one. The crisis he describes might just as well have been an act of God.”

They Warn for a Reason

Mr. Gold believes that economic catastrophes have natural causes. “Bad things happen in life,” he writes. “Hurricanes and tornadoes destroy communities. Nuclear war and climate change are big long-term dangers. And there will be bear markets and deep recessions in the years ahead.”

Inflation to any degree is not an act of God. Neither are currency nor stock market crashes. Central bankers create these calamities and then ride off into the sunset, earning six-figure speaking fees and multimillion-dollar book deals. The positive reinforcement they receive ensures they’ll repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

Thus, warnings must be issued constantly. Bad things are going to happen to the finances of individuals who aren’t prepared.

It’s not a matter of if, but when. Better scared than sorry.

(Editor’s Note: How quickly a crisis can creep up on you is demonstrated in our Casey Research documentary, Meltdown America. If you haven’t watched it yet, you should. Click here to watch this free video.)

The article Good Reason for Doom and Gloom was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

What Casey Research Staff Are Buying This Summer

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

I ran across a business show last week that advertised that its guests would give out stock picks. That piqued my curiosity, so I watched to see what they would recommend.

For disclosure purposes, a chart was shown that listed if the speaker, his family, his fund, or his clients owned the stock. By the end of the show, I was flabbergasted—not one speaker owned any stock they recommended!

Anyone can go on television and tell investors company X is a great investment, but how much should you trust them if they don’t follow their own recommendations?

The counterargument is that the speaker could be biased if they recommend stocks they already own because then they’re just “talking their book.” True enough.

But consider a more personal situation: If you got specific investment advice from a professional you hired and found out he never bought what he told you to buy, how seriously would you take his advice?

What if a newsletter service recommended you buy gold and gold stocks, but their editors didn’t follow their own advice? And what if the market retreated and they encouraged you to average down—but they didn’t?

In the June BIG GOLD, I told subscribers to put the final touches on their precious metals portfolio over the summer, to take advantage of low prices. Do I take my own advice? What about the rest of our staff? And what about those at Casey Research who write non-gold publications?

I decided to poll our editors to see if they follow the advice in BIG GOLD and International Speculator and what they plan to buy this summer in the precious metals arena. Here’s what they told me…

Doug Casey, Chairman: Most everything is overpriced, thanks to the Fed’s unprecedented money printing. That includes stocks and property, and bonds are in a bubble. So I continue to buy the metals consistently, and do private placements in deserving companies. The metals and mining stocks are about the only value out there.

Olivier Garret, CEO: I am definitely not reducing my exposure to precious metals [PMs] and stocks. I will add to my positions in PMs at Hard Assets Alliance. Our funds, of which I am a large shareholder, continue to deploy capital in the best-of-breed resource companies.

David Galland, Managing Director: Over the last year, I have been taking full advantage of the softness in the precious metals sector by concentrating my purchases only on the best of the best precious metals stocks, deciding on a price I am thrilled to pay and then waiting for the price to come to me. I have also been very selective in participating in private placements. If a private placement doesn’t come with a very favorably priced warrant with an expiration date at least three years out, giving the company time to take its business to the next level, then I’m simply not interested. That’s the beauty of periods of consolidation—you can afford to be selective.

I also like to build large positions in companies which I know have the right stuff, including a significant and feasible project as well as the money and the management needed to get the job done. When those companies pull back—as they invariably do in markets such as these—I have no reservations about buying more. Pretium Resources falls into that category. My personal upside target is over $15, so buying at these levels is a no-brainer for me. That said, I’m not greedy, so when I get a solid double-digit return on a stock, I’m happy to take a profit.

I guess when it comes down to it, now that I live most of the year in my version of paradise—La Estancia de Cafayate—and dedicate much of every day to fully enjoying the place, I try to keep things simple. Primarily, by setting aside a couple of hours each month to review my portfolio in order to make sure I still understand why I own all the investments I own and to rebalance any positions that have grown outside of my comfort zone, or pulled back, allowing me to continue to build a position. In the case of precious metals-related investments, I am very comfortable with them totaling about 25% of my overall portfolio.

Dan Steinhart, Managing Editor, The Casey Report: I have all the physical metal I want for now, and I averaged down on a couple junior miners in the last few months. For this summer, I’m looking hard at mid- and large-tier dividend payers. I want more exposure to gold because I’m confident it’s going to the moon, but I have no idea how long it will take to get there. Collecting dividends helps offset the opportunity cost while I wait. I already own a good amount of Goldcorp, so Yamana is my next target… I’m watching its chart for signs that the price has stabilized, and once I see that, I’m ready to buy.

Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist: I am looking to build positions in certain stocks but don’t want to advertise which ones.

Bud Conrad, Chief Economist: Gold is my largest personal position. As I wrote in the April issue of The Casey Report, the world’s financial system is approaching an important rebalancing. New political alignments will undermine the dollar’s special privileges and in turn will elevate gold’s importance.

The petrodollar arrangement will not last forever, and cracks are beginning to form that suggest it may decline faster than most expect. Since the 1970s, Saudi Arabia and OPEC have only accepted dollars for oil. The new $400 billion agreement between Russia and China does not use dollars, and this is a major geopolitical shift that could eventually undermine the reserve status of the dollar. The price of gold could rise into the thousands of dollars very quickly if the petrodollar system fails.

In the meantime, investors should understand that current price weakness comes from short-term, big, institutional influence rather than from economic fundamentals. There are big forces that are able to move markets—interest rates, commodities, and stocks. The key movers are the central banks and their closely related big banks. Some international banks are being indicted for illegal activities in LIBOR, foreign exchange, and most recently London bullion fixings. Employees are being fired, some are leaving, and firms are closing some of their trading desks. We even have suspicions about some bankers’ deaths.

The Fed’s massive and not completely revealed actions have been used along with the truly massive derivatives and futures markets as developed and traded by the big banks to distort the traditional economic forces so that big deficits can be managed by keeping rates low. Prices can thus be managed in the short term, and the media continues to support the government’s policies. That high-frequency trading is tolerated as described in Michael Lewis’ book Flash Boys is only the tip of the iceberg of all that is going on.

In the long term, I agree with Doug Casey: we still face the greatest financial collapse ever when the current machinations hit their limits and the deception becomes widely understood.

Dennis Miller, Senior Editor, Miller’s Money Forever: I have a full allocation to precious metals, but I have a growing concern that Obamacare, by design, will ration care for seniors. Pity the poor senior that goes to Panama for treatment because he can’t get it in the US, or the wait is too long, or it’s too expensive—only to realize currency controls have been instituted and he can’t get money out of the country! As a result, I have been using some of the strategies in our Going Global 2014 report to assure that this won’t happen to me or my wife. And gold is part of that strategy.

Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, International Man: This summer I plan to continue with steady purchases through MetalStream® for gold bullion held in Singapore. I’m also keeping a higher-than-normal cash reserve for stink bids on juniors. I already have adequate exposure to silver and large producers.

Shannara Johnson, Chief Editor: I buy silver every week through SilverSaver, a metals accumulation program that allows you to save as little as $25 per week. When I get extra money, such as bonuses, I often use a lump sum to buy a larger amount of silver on dips. As Doug Casey says, only metal that you can hold in your hand is really yours, so whenever my SilverSaver account reaches a certain level, I have some of the bullion delivered.

The reason I’m buying silver instead of gold is that it’s more affordable, and also because of the “divisible” part of Aristotle’s criteria for money. If there ever comes a crisis so devastating that paper dollars become worthless and precious metals are used for trade and barter, I imagine that silver bullion coins will be easier to, say, buy food with than gold coins or bars.

I’m very wary of the cancer that is eating away at the heart of America—call it crony capitalism or neo-feudalism—and everything the government and Wall Street do seems to be designed to separate the little guy from his money. I believe precious metals are manipulated, the markets are manipulated, and we saw in Cyprus that nothing is sacred anymore, not even our own bank accounts. I don’t plan to sell my silver unless I have to—it’s a safety net in case things go from bad to worse.

Doug Hornig, Senior Editor: I think quality numismatic coins are the best buy right now, which I’ve focused on, because they’re down 50% or more from their highs, which is a lot more than gold itself. If collectibles rebound as they always have, I’ll do very well. But if not, I still have the value of the underlying asset, gold, which provides a powerful amount of downside protection, and that’s not to be sneezed at.

I don’t buy gold as a speculation; just as an heirloom (hopefully, provided I don’t need it myself) for my kids. So I couldn’t care less about the gyrations of the gold price. Anyone who wants to play those ups and downs is welcome to, and it could be very profitable to do it. It’s just not for me. I’m strictly buy and hold.

Ed Steer, Editor, Gold & Silver Daily: I’m full up on stocks, as I’m still “all-in,” with virtually all of them junior silver producers from BIG GOLD. Right now I’m buying silver—physical metal in hand—as it won’t be at this price forever.

Chris Wood, Senior Analyst, Casey Extraordinary Technology: I just used the bulk of the cash I had budgeted for investing this summer to buy several of the Casey Extraordinary Technology stocks we recently recommended. So I probably won’t do much in the way of precious metals investing this summer, but I definitely plan on it this fall: buying physical gold and silver bullion coins, and setting up an account with the Hard Assets Alliance.

The short-term technical picture for gold doesn’t look great, coupled with the dollar strengthening over the past month and yen declining, which is generally bearish for gold. But I honestly don’t care about that at all. The long-term fundamental picture has only improved, save for the small bit of tapering that the Fed has initiated in its bond-buying program. Central banks around the world continue to create currency units at a record pace.

And the mid-term outlook for gold looks good too. Even though the dollar has strengthened over the past few weeks, the beginning of the end of the petrodollar system (shown most recently by the China/Russia gas deal) and China’s desire to essentially create a new UN without the US and EU but with Russia and Iran, has to be bullish for gold.

Kevin Brekke, Managing Editor, World Money Analyst: The post-2008/09 financial crisis run-up in gold had everyone from die-hard gold bugs to momentum jockeys riding the price wave. It seemed the trend would never end. Then came the countervailing realities of monetary, currency, and economic interventions, deflationary forces, and—gasp!—profit taking.

The ensuing price volatility in the precious metals sector had the myopic, trade-for-today crowd scamper to the next hot trade. Yet, the consequences of misguided policies remain unknown, and the excesses that were deployed to resolve them have simply been repressed. The underlying fundamentals are unchanged, and I will not sell my gold and render myself unarmed against the eventual fallout from a delayed day of reckoning.

Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist: Our household is tight on cash this summer, as we just poured much of our liquidity into buying our new home in Puerto Rico. Still, my wife and I have been going over our budget and plan to buy some stocks, maybe more bullion as well. Which ones will depend on what looks best when we pull the trigger, but adding to our position in BOZ is a high priority, and we’re thinking about SWC, too, as we’ve yet to add exposure to platinum/palladium, and our diversification into that sector in the newsletters seems to be working out even faster than expected.

If the market correction continues and we see the capitulation this summer that was close but never really fully developed last December, I will do all I can to scrounge up more cash to deploy, because I think it will be both life-changing and a once-in-a-lifetime event.

What About Me?

I have been buying tubes of silver Eagles and Maple Leafs every time silver dips to $19.50 or below. I plan to buy the discounted bullion offered in the June BIG GOLD, as well as the new Canadian Howling Wolf. I have full exposure to equities in the precious metals space—but then Louis or Marin will recommend a compelling speculation and off I go turning over couch cushions.

What I have found very rewarding is that by just sticking to a regular accumulation plan, my stash has steadily grown. Given the crises I see ahead, I want to be sure my household can withstand the fallout, which could be ugly if Doug Casey, Bud Conrad, James Rickards, and Jim Rogers are right. The financial crisis in 2008 was a wake-up call, and I realized then I probably didn’t have sufficient monetary protection. I feel differently today, thanks to my regular buying habits.

Since I’m in the public eye, I don’t keep any bullion at home—except for a dummy stash. I use several of the services recommended in our Bullion Buyers Guide, that you don’t have to be a high-net-worth investor to use.

Conclusion

What you see above started out as a survey but ended up becoming a great set of precious-metals-related investment advice. I hope you find it helpful.

If you’re interested in precious metals investments, but don’t know where to start, read our free special report, the 2014 Gold Investor’s Guide. It tells you how and when to buy gold and silver bullion… what to watch out for when investing in gold stocks… and much more. Click here to get it now.

The article What Casey Research Staff Are Buying This Summer was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Jim Willie, The Golden Jackass's Most Shocking Claim Ever!

Jim Willie was on fire, dropping numerous new BOMBSHELLS for SD listeners:

1. Dead Petro-Dollar Event Coming- Saudis set to announce the acceptance of ANY CURRENCY for oil, ALL OPEC Nations to Follow!

2. US Economy in Free-fall- stark evidence screaming full collapse ahead as monetary velocity plunges to 20 year lows!

3. QE has been a dead-weight millstone on the neck of the US economy- true purpose is to collapse the US economy and institute global fascism!

4. And Willie's MOST SHOCKING CLAIM EVER: Japan, Saudi Arabia, France, & Germany are preparing to turn against the US, & join the Chinese/Russian Alliance!

- Source, Silver Doctors

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Too Good to Be True? Legally Avoid Paying Income Tax

By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist

When you hear about strategies that claim to legally allow US citizens to avoid having to pay income tax, the first thing that probably comes to mind is that it’s some sort of cockamamie scheme.

The US government is no slouch when it comes to shaking down its citizens for every penny. It would be foolish in the extreme to think you could slip one past them.

There really was no sure way to legally escape the suffocating grip of the US government besides death and renouncing your US citizenship… until recently.

A new option has emerged that allows Americans to significantly reduce or eliminate income tax altogether. At first it sounds impossible, but as Casey Research’s Chief Metals and Mining Strategist Louis James has found out for himself, this is 100% real and legitimate.

And for many Americans, including individuals operating on a modest scale, it could really be game-changing.

The video below is a recent presentation Louis gave on this jaw-dropping opportunity.

If you are at all interested in keeping more money in your pocket, you won’t want to miss it.

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The article Too Good to Be True? Legally Avoid Paying Income Tax was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Ron Paul: Nothing Orderly About the Currency Collapse That's Coming It Will Be a Panic

Congressman & former Presidential Candidate Ron Paul joins the show this week, discussing:

1. Putin's response to US sanctions with economic retaliation- implications for US economy & the US Dollar- It is very significant, dumping of US dollars has begun...The dollar can't be maintained. One reason the dollar has been sustained as well as it has been is who wants to buy yuan or euros? But ultimately they will buy the real money, and that's gold!

2. Paul on the Coming collapse of the dollar & all fiat currencies: Officials in charge of monetary policy are very aware of what's coming- they believe as long as it is orderly they will be ok...The problem is when people lose confidence in a currency, they lose confidence completely. There's nothing orderly about it! There's always a panic, and that's hard to manage. There will be a day when people will panic in the financial markets, not only in the dollar, but in the world-wide system!

3. The former member of the House Financial Services Committee explains why his nemesis at the Federal Reserve works so hard to discredit gold, and what he wishes he would have asked Ben Bernanke during his grilling of the Fed Chairman at his House Hearings on the Fed's Monetary Policy.

- Source, Silver Doctors

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War Greatest Risk, Not Global Financial Collapse

In her latest report, investment advisor Catherine Austin Fitts says, “The greatest risk is not global financial collapse. Our greatest risk is war.” Ms. Fitts explains, “I am talking about war in many different venues. What we’ve seen in a place like Ukraine is very much defined by what’s called “soft weapons.” So, we are watching war through the information systems and cyber hacking. We’ve got Edward Snowden warning us about everything that can go on through the digital systems, and then we’ve got boots on the ground. We’ve got the President now saying he’s pulling boots on the ground. It’s just like the Roman Empire pulled the army back and left the church in place. The American empire is going to pull the boots on the ground back and leave the drones in place.”

Fitts correctly predicted that there would be no financial collapse in 2013. She characterizes what is going on in the global economy as a “slow burn.” Fitts contends, “The dominant economic scenario that I think that has been going on for quite some time is what I call the ‘slow burn.’ The ‘slow burn’ is a process where our incomes fall steadily and our expenses rise steadily. That is what is squeezing the middle class in the developed world. So, you have this squeeze going on, and every time the ‘slow burn’ starts to accelerate, the pressure to get more natural resources cheap or reduce the lifestyle of the population increases. So, every time we see the real pressure and ‘slow burn’ accelerate, you see more warfare. So, you see the landing in Libya, or landing in Afghanistan, or landing in Iraq because you’ve got effort by the empire to source global natural resources at very cheap prices and to maintain the reserve currency. So, to me, if we start to see an acceleration of the ‘slow burn’ and things start to unravel, I don’t think you are going to see prices make the adjustment made in the market. I think you are going to see the adjustment made with force.”

That brings us to war, but it may be covert instead of overt. Fitts explains, “If you look at the kind of wars going on around the planet, I would say the covert war is much more intense and much more common than the overt war. Overt wars are much more expensive in terms of politics, brand and money. So, if these things can be done covertly, they will be.” Fitts goes on to say, “If you see the ‘slow burn’ speed up, or the fall in the dollar speed up too much, then you are going to get more and more aggressive force.”

On the recent negative 1% GDP growth in the first quarter, Fitts says, “The economy clearly contracted in the first quarter. Part of what you’re seeing is enormous automation going on in the economy globally, and you have a very large number of people either losing employment or they are losing income. They are employed, but their incomes are falling. That’s beginning to spiral back around back into the economy. The sectors dependent on the middle class are really hurting; and, of course, I think that is going to get worse.”

So, how do middle class people fight back and cope with the evolving economy? Fitts says, “I would say the economy is extraordinarily divergent. One part of the economy is strong, and the other part is literally collapsing in slow motion. I think the critical question for every person and every family is if I am over in the one that is dying, then how do I get over and shift into the one that’s being born?” Fitts goes on to say, “The first thing you have to do is to completely reinvent how you think about education and learning. One of the great revolutions is with education, and it is happening globally. . . . You and I grew up in a time where the idea was you went to school and you went to college. You learned something, and you went out and did it. It’s not like that anymore. You have to keep learning every day. You have to acquire new skills. . . . The second thing is . . . suddenly, you can make a lot more money doing things yourself. I now do things it would not have occurred to me to do for myself before. It’s much more economic and . . . you dramatically lower your revenues, but you dramatically lower your expenses. Your quality of life goes up.” Becoming more health conscious is another point Fitts says you need to do in the brave new global economy. Fitts explains, “The message from traditional health care policies in this country is you all are on you own. We all need to invest in staying healthy. We all need to take charge of our health. We all need to learn how to be our own doctor, and that starts with eating fresh food and doing all the things you need to do to build up your health.”

On the November mid-term elections, Fitts says, “I think Harry Reid thinks they will lose the House and Senate. I think they will lose the whole ball of wax.”

Fitts says a new economy is emerging in the U.S. that she calls the 3.0 economy. Fitts contends, “Look at the 3.0 economy in the United States. There is a group of people managing that economy who just successfully stole $40 trillion from the American people and the rest of the globe. They say we are going to re-engineer the economy, but before we do, we are going to pull every dime out of it. They are sitting on $340 trillion plus what they had before, and that is enough money to run a global government on a private basis. You are watching a mass privatization.”

On global financial trouble spots, Fitts, a former Wall Street investment banker, says, “To me, the number one risk economically is China. If you look at who has real serious domestic problems and political problems–it’s China. The really scary part of the global economy is if we really see China spiral down, then we could see the rest of the world spiral down. That would be my big concern, not the U.S. or the dollar.”

On gold, Fitts predicts, “It’s weak right now, it hasn’t found its bottom. If we don’t find a bottom soon, we could see a really big drop... Long term, it’s going to be healthy for gold and silver.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

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Hong Kong And Shanghai Gold Exchange Consider Alliance

The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, a Hong Kong based gold and silver exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange consider a trading alliance.

eFoods Direct - Emergency Food Supplies. An old, new way to eat!

The Mises View: "Silver Money and Inflation" Real World Examples

Mark Thornton explains how silver money keeps inflation in check. Thornton is a Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute. For more information, visit the Mises Institute online at Mises.org

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1 Oz .999 Silver Standing Freedom Girl Silver Bullet Silver Shield Round

The full version of the most popular ever Silver Bullet, Silver Shield round is now available. The Standing Freedom Girl proudly displays the word freedom across the top of the coin. This coin represents a simple, but powerful message that has meaning to people around the world. She is shown with flowing hair, Trivium shield and spear.

To purchase these round, or to view more details about these rounds, please click here.

The Top Ten Reasons to Buy and Own Silver

Top Ten Reasons to Buy Silver

10. As I briefly explained above, the providers of "money" in this day and age have no respect for economics and instead print money out of thin air -expecting positive results -, but instead diminish the value of the dollar.

9. Silver has many uses outside of you storing it in your bunker...the techonology and medical industry require silver. Just a couple examples of how it's in demand.

8. When everyone is rooting against something, that's usually a sure sign that you need to be researching it. Many financial writers are singing of silver's decline, however demand has never been higher! Didn't your mother always tell you, "If your friends all jumped off a bridge, would you too?"

7. David Morgan recently shared in an interview on our Youtube Channel - "not everyone can have silver!" There just isn't enough in the world, thus you need to get your hands on some before it's all gone.

6. Silver jewelry and silverware have been on the up and up. People want silver!

5. Silver has been used around the world as money for thousands of years. It's become a common denominator for exchange. If presented with silver or a piece of paper, I'm sure most would choose the shiny.

4. It's an affordable purchase for lower budget savings. If you are placing a weekly amount of your income into silver or gold every week you will be able to afford more silver and spend less on premiums. Spending $50-100 on gold every week will eat into your savings because small denominations of gold carry a heavier premium. However, $50 of silver does not.

3. It's pretty. Seriously...have you seen some of the rounds that are available these days. Downright gorgeous and a great idea for a gift.

2. Silver has retained its value. Dimes, quarters and other US minted coins in circulation used to be made from 90% silver (pre-1965).

1. The world is demanding silver. Look outside of the US speculations and US markets...foreign markets point straight to silver (and gold). China and India being some of the main countries to observe. It's always important to remember that although the US' economy plays a significant role in the global economy, emerging markets should always be considered when gathering your financial news. The US is digging itself into a deep hole by infinitely printing money, and new leaders will emerge.

- Source, Amagi Metals